Aaron Rodgers: The Underappreciated MVP

Logan Samp lays out how the Aaron Rodgers haters may not see the whole picture

2nd and 5 on the opening drive for the Pack, on the Steelers 25. Rodgers gets the snap, fakes the handoff, and looks right and fires to Jordy Nelson out in the flat. Nelson leaps, catches and spins right to go up the sideline. Jordy lost his footing and slips, for a gain of 7. Nelson gets up very gingerly, and cautiously jogs over to the sideline. 

On this beautiful August day, in a meaningless preseason game in Pittsburgh, little did Packer fans know that Jordy had just tore his ACL and would require season ending surgery. What they also did not know about were the trials and tribulations the team would have to go through to maintain the amount of success it had in years past.

Coming off a red hot 2014, an MVP year for Aaron Rodgers, the sky was the limit for the Packers in 2015. Even with the gut wrenching overtime NFC Divisional Round loss in Seattle, the general consensus was that Green Bay would be right back in the thick of things come playoff time. Returning to the playoffs without your number one receiver is a very tough task, but Jordy isn’t just any number one. Coming off the best year of his career in 2014, Jordy received all pro honors with 98 receptions, 1519 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Filling his shoes at the receiver position would be nearly impossible. It also meant that Rodgers needed to step up more than he has been expected to in his career.

In what was a pretty good season when it came to regular quarterback standards in the NFL, a lot of analysts were really taking it to Rodgers. Numerous articles circulated with headlines such as, “What’s Wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” or “Is The Decline of Rodgers Upon Us?” Aaron had what would be considered a good season for about 25 quarterbacks in the NFL, but he is held to such a high standard, he must play at an elite level to satisfy the critics. Rodgers threw for 3,821 yards, 31 TD’s and 8 INT’s. He was also the second highest sacked QB in the league in 2015, and had a career low 92.7 QBR (statistic that measures all of the quarterback’s contributions to the success of the team). In comparison, Ben Roethlisberger had 3,936 yards, 21 TD’s and 16 INT’s. Drew Brees threw for 32 TD’s and 11 INT’s, but still everyone decided to jump on Rodgers' case.

It is important to note in Rodgers' defense, his team was hardly healthy. The injury to Jordy took a toll on the team, and Eddie Lacy and key players on the defense missing multiple games made it extremely hard for Rodgers to steer the ship by himself. For someone who apparently had a “down year”, he led Green Bay to a 10-6 regular season record and a playoff game in Washington. He beat Kirk Cousins and the Redskins handily 35-18, and flew to Arizona for the divisional round matchup with the Cardinals.

Rodgers had to muster up some of his Hail Mary magic to propel the Packers into overtime, only for the defense to let down again and leave the best player on the field, Larry Fitzgerald wide open for a 75 yard gain down to the goal-line. Shortly after, Fitzgerald caught a shovel pass for the score, ending the Packers season. Like most Packer fans, I was proud of the fight Green Bay showed despite the fact we were without so many playmakers for the majority of the season. The 2016 season couldn’t come fast enough. Nothing was “wrong” with Rodgers, and he proved that in the 2016 regular season.

The term “run the table” is a verb phrase that means, “to finish a season undefeated”. The phrase never sounded sweeter when it came out of Aaron Rodgers mouth in Week 11 of the regular season. The Pack were having a slow start to say the least for the first 10 weeks of the regular season. A 4-6 start, McCarthy firing murmurs, and a whole other world of hate being thrown Rodgers way. The three words spoken by Rodgers and what happened next could potentially go down in infamy with the Babe Ruth’s homerun point of the bat, and Joe Namath’s Super Bowl guarantee.

Now I have had this discussion with some of my friends, and read plenty of articles online that outline why some people dislike Rodgers. He can be a bit condescending, a bit aloof at times, people question his leadership, there have been reports of him not always getting along with players, some even question his will to win. I’ve heard that “Rodgers only cares about his stats”. However, for someone who doesn’t have a will to win, or shows strong leadership qualities he can sure get a locker room to rally behind him. After he said to the media “I believe we can run the table”, Aaron Rodgers has put together one of the best six-game regular season stretches of all time: 15 passing TD’s and 0 INT’s, a passing rating average of 121, and a 6-0 record to catapult the Packers to another NFC North title, and a home playoff game. What looked like a dreadful season for Green Bay has quickly turned into a locomotive that isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

Their first playoff game was the Wild Card game against the New York Giants, at Lambeau Field. The Giants defense had been dominant over the course of the regular season. Odell and the wide-outs form crew of guys that potentially have the most talent of any wide receiver core in the league. It would not be an easy task for the Packers, but they sure did make it look easy. It was a beat down. The final was 38-13 Packers, and another historic Rodgers performance. 362 yards, 4 passing touchdowns, and oh, another goose-egg in the interception column.

Coming off a monumental win in the Wild Card round, the Packer’s had to face the Dallas Cowboys, the best regular season team in the league, in Jerry World. Led by standout rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys were a red-hot football team. The Packers lost to Dallas earlier in the season in what would be Rodgers worst game of the year. In a year that has produced hardly any entertaining playoff games, this one was on everyone’s radar. It didn’t disappoint.

Rodgers and the Pack dominated the first 20 minutes of the game and jumped out to a commanding 21-3 lead. Prescott and the Cowboys showed no quit, and cut the lead to 28-13 early in the fourth quarter. Another big drive capped off by the Cowboys leading to a Jason Witten touchdown cut the lead to 28-20. The Packers were stopped and the Cowboy’s got the ball back and drove all the way down the field again. A Dez Bryant touchdown and Dak Prescott QB keeper for 2 point conversion tied the ball game up. The urgency was evident and it was the Packers turn to strike. Green Bay drove down to the Dallas 39 and were stopped on 3rd down, setting up a 56 yard field goal for Mason Crosby. The veteran kicker snuck one through the upright to put the Pack up 31-28. The Cowboys responded well and hit a field goal with 35 seconds left to tie the ballgame 31 all. Unfortunately for them, that was too much time for A-Rod. 3rd and 20, Rodgers like a kid playing backyard football drew up a play in the huddle, and instructed the receivers to go left and get open. 

Rodgers then made a throw that will go down in history. Rolling left, he threw a 36 yard bullet to Jared Cook who tip toed in bounds to secure the catch, setting the Packers up with the game winning 51 yard field goal as the time expired.

It was one of the best throws I’ve ever seen.

Run The Table. Since those words were spoken, the Packers have posted an 8-0 record, all the while Rodgers has thrown for 21 touchdowns and willed his team to the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. It is hard to put into words Aaron’s play over the past two months, because I think for a lot of us it’s something we haven’t seen before. No Jordy Nelson? No problem. A running back who wears number 88 because we are so thin at that position? No problem. I think for some of those who dislike Rodgers, they need to take a little look at this stretch and what he has done and maybe reconsider some of those things. This guy is incredible, and his will to win is evident. His leadership is clear, getting an entire locker room to rally around a phrase that could be one of the most legendary sports moments with just two more wins. Aaron Rodgers is proving that he is one of the best quarterbacks of all time, and he has another chance to prove that this weekend at the Georgia Dome against Matt Ryan and the high-flying offense of the Atlanta Falcons. Will Aaron and the Packer’s continue to run the table and go to the Super Bowl? We’ll have to see. One thing I know for sure: Aaron Rodgers is special.

Prediction: A-Rod keeps up the hot play: 38-31 Packers.

Follow Logan Samp on Twitter: @loganjsamp

Follow Ike Sport Report on Twitter: @IKE_SportReport

Are You Feeling Lucky? NFL Betting Preview, 2016

A handicapper within the sports betting industry lays out why the Kansas City Chiefs could win you some money

Let’s make this clear from the beginning. I am not a writer. I am not a gambler. I am a handicapper. My goal in you reading this is for you to fatten your wallet this football season. When you read this, think of this article as financial investment advice. Just as it is in the stock market, I can’t guarantee that this advice will create profit for you. No forecast comes without risk. After-all, by definition forecasting is trying to predict the future. What I can guarantee is that if you follow my leads, in the long run, you too can profit in the sports betting industry.

My advice to you is simple. The Kansas City Chiefs are undervalued this season by the betting public, odds makers, Vegas, bookies, and the so called “Experts.” 

Here are the ten reasons I like the Kansas City Chiefs to have a better 2016-17 NFL football season than the market is predicting. 

Roster

Every offseason the NFL players vote on the top 100 players and the results are shown on the NFL Network’s T.V. series ‘The Top 100.’ The Chiefs had 9 players on that list, most of any team. Maclin-93, Kelce-91, Hali-84, Smith-81, D. Johnson-80, Charles-75, Peters-65, Berry 55, Houston-26. Carolina and Denver were tied with the seconded most of any teams with 7 players each. Cincinnati Arizona each had 6 players voted on the list.

This speaks for itself, but in case you don’t grasp it then let me explain. The Chiefs are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and will be strong in all three phases of the game. In my opinion this is the most talented roster in football.

Injuries Last Season

If you remember last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game to New England that knocked KC out of the playoffs, then you will recall that Maclin and Houston were no factors in that game due to injures while the play making Jamal Charles’ season was already finished due to a torn ACL. That means the Chiefs were without of 3 of their top players vs. NE last year. As if that wasn’t enough injuries already they also were playing with a different offensive line in almost every game towards the end of the season. Several linemen were listed out with concussions towards the end of the season which was a listed injury more frequently to the Chiefs last year than any other team in the league. DeAnthony Thomas AKA DAT went out for the season with a strange and doubted/fake concussion by some after week 12 last year (Perhaps to get out of a drug test.) **See Side Note for a BOLD training camp battle pick

As the old belief goes for the NFL, when someone asks for your super bowl pick in fall one should answer by asking which good team will have suffered the least amount of injuries come January.

Injuries occur with a good amount of variance (luck), so the Chiefs could be banged up again this season. But if they do stay healthy, and especially down the stretch, then this is a team I believe is just as likely to make a title run out of the AFC as the betting favorites Pittsburgh and New England. 

** Side Note** Almost all the beat writers and experts are saying that DAT is in position battle with 5th round draft pick Tyrek Hill for the final WR position spot. I will rave in length about Hill in my next point, so you know the Chiefs are keeping that 5th round steal. And I am actually going to predict that the Chiefs will also keep DAT on their roster. Once you read about Hill then you would understand how attractive keeping another track star like DAT could be. I predict the Chiefs will cut another WR not named Maclin to make room for the track star WR combo.

Tyrek Hill

The Chiefs drafted the best football player in the 2016 NFL Draft without even having a first round pick (they lost their 2016 first round pick rights due to tampering with Jeremy Maclin in the 2015 offseason.) What makes it even more impressive was that they didn’t use their second, third, or fourth round picks to acquire best player in the draft either.  The Kansas City Chiefs selected Tyrek Hill Jr. out of West Alabama in the fifth round with the 165th overall pick. And when I say the best player in the draft class, I mean he is the most ready right now to have a huge impact in the NFL, but I also think he is going to go onto have a HOF career.

If you are wondering how the best player coming out in this years draft fell to pick number 165, then I would have to tell you Hill’s full story. To start this is from Hill’s Wiki page, 

“A native of Douglas, Georgia, Hill attended Coffee High School, where he won both the 100 meters and 200 meters at the 2012 Georgia 5A state meet.[1][2]

On May 26, 2012, at the 36th Golden South Classic in Orlando, Florida, Hill ran a new season-best in the 100 m (10.19) and a PR in the 200 m (20.14).[3] His time in the 200 m missed Roy Martin's 1985 national high school record by only one hundredth of a second. It was the fastest time by a junior athlete in the 2012 season, and in fact the fastest by a junior since Ramil Guliyev's 20.04 in 2009. His time in the 100 m ties Abraham Hall for second fastest by a junior in the 2012 season, behind only Adam Gemili. He was Track and Field News "High School Athlete of the Year" in 2012.[4] Hill also clocked a 4.25 40-yard dash at a Nike Spark Camp.[citation needed] Hill ran a wind-assisted (+5.0 m/s) 9.98 in the 100-meter dash at the 2013 Hutchinson NJCCA Championships.[5]”

There a lot of highly touted players that are labeled as being track stars as well as football players. But there are not a lot of those track-star/football players that are coming one one-hundredth away from breaking historic records and running a 4.25 40-yard dash time as a junior in high school. Let me put this another way; there is fast and then there is Tyrek Hill/ Chris Johnson kind of fast. Hill actually ran a 4.24 40 yard dash time at his pro day, the same time Johnson ran when he ran the fastest 40 yard dash time ever clocked at a NFL combine.

As I mention above, a lot of track stars try to take their speed to the football fields. They are often labeled as soft WR’s or DB’s, who don’t like the physically and aggression that comes along with playing the game of football. But I have witnessed Hill player as a freshman at Oklahoma State, and I can contest he is a rugged, gets low to the ground, loves the physical contact, and has an ability to spin out of tackles type of runner. He is a straight up play maker when you consider his strength paired with his speed. He is probably the closest thing I have ever seen as far as play making ability since Barry Sanders, who also ironically went to Oklahoma St.

(As much knowledge that I have on the NFL, I have always prided myself as being even a bigger CFB handicapper. So when I say I saw a player play college ball when he was a kid in college, just know I am not talking about just one or two games. I watch every game, every Saturday.)

And Hill had the talent of a senior as a freshman, and that is something very rare in CFB. There is only a player like that once in a few years; Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma), Cam Newton (Auburn), Randy Moss (Marshall.) I think that I might be putting Hill in too good of company seeing he hasn’t played in the NFL yet, but I think you get my point that this kid will have a bright future in professional football.

Now you still might be wondering how a player this highly spoken of could have slipped to pick #165. On December 12, 2014, just after Hill’s impressive Freshman 2014 regular season with the Cowboys had concluded; he was arrested for punching his pregnant GF in the face. What made the domestic abuse charges even more disturbing was that Hill also pouched his GF, who was pregnant with his child, in the stomach several times. Hill was kicked off of the OSU football team immediately after the charges were filed and no NCAA Division I school would allow him transfer to play on their football team for the 2015 season due to the recent PR issues the NCAA and the NFL had dealt with on domestic violence against women. The University of West Alabama, a division II college, did let Hill return to football and play the 2015 season on their team. That is the story why he was not drafted out of a big college like OSU, and instead was selected out of little, way-lesser known, West Alabama. That is the story why no NFL team drafted Hill until #165. 

Let me make my point simple. No team was expected to take Hill due to the character/publicity issue. The Chiefs folded on the issue before every team. You can say what you want about the KC Chiefs as an organization, you can say what you want about Hill as a person, but it is not the job of the football handicapper to judge the character of the players. We judge facts and the truth. The old eye test of mine was given to Hill while he was a freshman at OSU, and he passed, and I will never forget talents like him. As much as I don’t want to like Hill as a human being, as a football fan this guy is so under the radar right now that it won’t be long before his talents are noticed by the general public. Tyrek Hill is the definition of value that a good seasoned handicapper looks for.

One more thing on Hill, the Chiefs have a special teams coach David Toub on their coaching staff this year. He is the former special teams coach of the Chicago Bears under Lovie Smith when Devon Hester was their return man. One more reason to except Hill to have a huge impact on special teams.

Small Market Team

Something that new handicappers might not know that experienced handicappers use to profit off of is that small market teams receive less action from the betting public than larger market teams. Not all sports bettors have unbiased opinions, and in fact most bettors have an extreme biases to their home town teams. So if 5% of every city bets on their teams, then obviously the teams that hail form the largest cities will have the most action on them. Why is this so important? Because bookies, odds makers, and Vegas are not in the gambling business. They are brokers. They want their action balanced to spread out their risk/liabilities and in most cases are able to guarantee themselves profit no matter the outcome of the event. So when the bookies have to make an opening betting line for an NFL game they will often adjust the number in favor of the lesser popular team.

Take for example when the Green Bay Packers, America’s favorite team, play the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team on the bottom of the popularity list. The odds makers might think the line should be Green Bay -3, but they know from their experience that they will receive more action on the Packers than the Jaguars at the number, so they will adjust the number to Green Bay -3.5 or Green Bay -4. This is where professional bettors will play the Jaguars because they know that they are receiving a half or full point advantage. 

To summarize, good handicappers like betting on small market teams because of the adjustments odds makers must make to adjust for the larger market teams. 

The Chiefs are not a popular pick to win SB 51 in February. Of course the usually good fan favorite teams such as the Packers, Patriots, Panthers, Seahawks, and Steelers will all be in the mix, but they don’t have the same value that KC has. KC is listed at 20-1 to win the SB, while the previously mentioned teams all are around 10-1 to win the SB. KC is just as good as those teams, but the odds don’t reflect that because of the previously mentioned teams popularity over Chiefs. The Chiefs aren’t better than those teams, but they are just as good; hence they hold value. I don’t just like the fact that the Chiefs are a small market and non-popular team to bet on; I love it because it means the value siren in my head is going off.

Alex Smith

Probably the most memorable NFL Draft day memory ever was when Aaron Rodgers, who many thought would be the number one overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft, sat in the green room trying to hold in his emotions as team after team past on drafting him. Some fans believe this is why Rodgers plays with a such a chip on his shoulder the same way MJ did because he was chosen #3 overall in the 1984 NBA Draft. Every NFL fan remembers this moment, and most fans also remember that Alex Smith was chosen #1 over Rodgers by the SF 49ers, who ironically at the time had Green Bay Packers Coach Mike McCarthy as their offensive coordinator and helped influence management to select Smith. Let’s make this clear, Smith will never be Aaron Rodgers who has the chance to go down as the greatest QB ever to play in the league. But does this mean that Alex Smith should be considered a bust? I think the perception right now by most fans is that he is. Something I grossly disagree with. Just because Hakeem Olajuwon wasn’t as good as MJ, doesn’t mean he wasn’t a great player. I think the same comparison should be made between Rodgers and Smith. Of course SF would take Rodgers in a heart beat if they could redo the draft, but again, that doesn’t mean Alex Smith can’t have a good NFL career.

I am not going to break down the stats in this article, but trust me when I tell you that they are there to back up my opinion on Smith. What I am going to talk about is Smith’s ability to win. He won in College at Utah where he was 21-1 as their starting QB. He took a SF team that was 2-14 the year before he got there all the way to the NFC Championship game 4 years later. The next season he led SF to 6-2 start, but was benched for rookie Colin Kaepernik when Smith went down late in the season with an concussion (which in my opinion then and now was the wrong move by SF). And what has Smith done since arriving in KC? That’s right, win.

I understand Smith isn’t a flashy play maker like Cam Newton, Brett Favre or Russell Wilson. He is a QB who plays for efficiency. He is a “game manager,” a phase to most fans that means he is good, but boring. When most people think of a “game manager” they think of Trent Dilfer. Didn’t Dilfer win a SB? And after-all isn’t Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady really good game managers? The only difference between those three and Smith is the rings on their fingers, and the lack of rings on Smith’s opinion.

Again, looking at the “value” in handicapping QB’s in the NFL, Alex Smith might (does) have the largest difference between how good he truly is and how good the betting public thinks he is.  If you look up Kansas City Chiefs QB Alex Smith in the handicapping dictionary then you will see one word; VALUE.

Andy Reid

Like Alex Smith, Andy Reid has a history of finishing in second place. As the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid lead his team to four consecutive NFC Championship games (2000-2003.) The Eagles were only able to advance to the SB in one of those years, and eventually lost to the NE Patriots in SB XXXIX. Years later, we now know that might have been a stolen SB from Reid, as NE supposedly had stolen the Eagles game plan. I will address in length later on.

Andy Reid is regarded as the best coach in the NFL who hasn’t won a SB. Andy Reid is known for giving his teams the best game plans each week. Andy Reid teams are always fundamentally sound, have a good offensive line, don’t make many mistakes and have come into the game more prepared than their opponents. Again, fundamental, solid upfront, mistake free, prepared teams. What more could you want out of a head coach? Again like Smith, I will not break down the stats, but Reid’s stats show he has won every where he has coached. 

If Reid had a championship ring on his finger, then the public would be comparing him to Bellick as the best coach in the league as I already am doing. Again, like Smith, see “value” in the handicapper’s dictionary.

Personally, and trust me I know that no handicapper should ever say they are a fan of any coach, player, or team, but I am a fan of Andy Reid for two reasons. One, I grew up a Packers fan, and Andy Reid was Brett Favre’s O-Line coach in Green Bay under head coach Mike Holgrem (best coaching staff ever assembled?)

Secondly, my heart has always gone out for Andy Reid and his family. Reid has two children, both sons. Both of his sons made major news when he was in Philadelphia for being jailed due to their drug usage fueled crimes. To simplify, both his sons were/are opiate junkies. After getting out of jail, Reid allowed his eldest son, Garrett to work on his staff as a training assistant. During the 2012 training camp his son relapsed on heroin, and was found dead in the team dormitory at the age of 29. Imagine that moment for Andy Reid. And unfortunately for me, it isn’t that hard to imagine. I have seen the Moms and Dads of several good friends of mine that lost their lives to heroin/pain pills, and I can only imagine that Andy Reid is no different than my friend’s parents. They say that the hardest thing to do is to have to burry your own child, and for that reason, I will always be cheering for Andy Reid.

Schedule

I am sure you have all heard the saying that the NFL is a league of parity. Each year teams fall and rise in the standings from the previous year unlike any other professional sport league. One of the ways the NFL creates parity is by their scheduling. 

Each season you and you divisional rivals are scheduled to play 4 games versus a division from an opposing conference, 4 games versus a division from the same conference, and 6 games versus you own divisional foes. That leaves two games left for the NFL to schedule for each team, and they use this formula. If you won your division last season then you must play the other two divisional winners from your conference. If you took second in your division then you must play the other two second place teams in your conference (remember you are already playing one full division in your conference.) The same formula applies for the second and third place teams. 

Looking at the AFC West this season they are matched to play the worst two divisions in football. The NFC South and the AFC South. Looking at the Chiefs, since they finished in second place in the AFC West last season (one game behind Denver) after a 1-5 start, they will play the NY Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Denver finished in first, they must play the two other divisional winners, Cincinnati and NE Patriots. 

Based on last season’s standings the Chiefs play the 16th toughest schedule this season. The teams they play this season combined to have a 49.6% winning percentage last season. 

**Side Note** Atlanta and San Francisco tie for the hardest schedule this season, while Green Bay has drawn the easiest schedule of all 32 teams (remember Minnesota won the NFC North last season.)

There is one more thing I like to handicap when looking at NFL scheduling; miles traveled by a team. The more time a team must spend traveling the less time they have to practice, prepare/study film, and rest/recover. The studies are out there that prove that the more miles a team must travel in a season the higher the correlation to more losses/ less wins. 

This season the Chiefs get to travel the 23rd most out of any team with 13,414 miles to be traveled. **Side Note** The Steelers will travel less than any other team at 5,144 miles, and the Rams will travel the most out of any team as they must log 37,072 miles in traveling distance.

Ownership Spending/ Team Cohesion

Another way the NFL creates parity is by having a maximum salary that a team is allowed to spend towards its players. This season the cap is set at $155,270,000.00. It is important to note that just because owners are allowed to spend that amount, not all do. Some owners will spend less, so they have less expenses on their books which results in a larger profit margin for the owners. Usually in professional sports there is a direct correlation between spending and winning. If you go look at what every NFL team is spending on their salaries then for the most part you will realize that the better teams are simply willing to spend more. Of course there are outliers, like the Saints spending the most, and the Panthers spending the fourth least of any team. Spending doesn’t directly correlate to winning, since you must budget and spend wisely on you players, but it does help to have an owner that is willing to give the General Manger a bigger budget.

The Chiefs currently have the fourth highest payroll in the league. As I mentioned in my first point “Roster” the Chiefs are absolute loaded with talent. This point is reiterating the amount of talent they have. 

John Dorsey (KC’s GM) has done an exceptional job complying this roster and coaching staff. He has nailed pick after pick in the draft, and has mostly built this roster through the draft and resigning his own players. Why is this important? Because of cohesion. Most of the core players on this roster will be playing their fourth consecutive season under Andy Reid. This is so important to not underestimate. So many owners are switching head coaches and coaching staffs, and that it can be difficult for young players to grasp their coaches’ system or learn game plans. Imagine being a 22 year old rookie and having to learn a new system every year for your first four seasons (Alex Smith had to go through this.) Good teams are able to hold the same head coach every year, and this creates cohesion and comfort which hopefully results into good team chemistry. 

Any good NFL team is no different than any other business, in that they are built from the top down. The NFL is an owner-GM-HC-QB league according to Colin Cowherd of FoxSports (while he says the NBA is a player’s league.) Kansas City’s ownership has committed its self financially to winning, the General Manger has nailed his draft picks and spent wisely in free agency, they have the best HC in the league in Reid, and they have a solid QB. 

Management is another reason I love Kansas City. **Side Note**Bringing Nick Foles in as their backup QB was a great move. As I mentioned in my second point, injuries effect NFL teams more than any other professional sports teams. If Smith does happen to go down, then the Chiefs season will not be lost as it would be for most contending teams (NE, GB, Pitt, Car, etc.) because Nick Foles is not only young and talented, he was a pro bowler just 2 seasons ago.

Market Opening

I started to address this in my previous point about management; that the NFL is a business no different than any other. The point of owning these teams is for the owners to profit, and boy do they ever. With that in mind, I will be reaching out on business theories on my final two points. Take them for what you want, but I will show you solid logic behind my reasoning. My first eight points focused on football, these final two will be leaning a little more on the conspiracy side of things.

The Los Angles Rams returned to Los Angles this season after leaving back in 1994. While this left L.A. fans ecstatic after not having a NFL team in America’s second largest market, it also left the St. Louis fans without a team. So what team will the fans in the St. Louis market now follow, support, and spend money on? Or phased another way, which NFL owner is going to move into the Eastern Missouri/St. Louis Market to increase their profits?

I think there are five NFL franchises that will split control of the St. Louis Market; L.A. Rams, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs. 

L.A.: Some fans will remain loyal to the team and support them in their new town, but there will also be some bitter fans that will be looking to find new teams to follow. I except another 8-8 season from this team that is strong up front, but still lacks experience at key skill positions.

Chicago: The closest city that hosts an NFL franchise to St. Louis is Chicago (actually it’s Indianapolis, but that is jumping across two state lines), unfortunately for the McCaskey family the Bears are not expected to have a good season this year. Jon Fox is often regarded as the best coach to turn around your franchise, and has always found success in his second seasons with new teams. I would expect the Bears to have a much better defense this year and surpass the odds makers expectations for them this season, but as long as Cutler is under center they will not make the playoffs.

Green Bay and Dallas: Both often past the title as “America’s team,” and since Kansas City is right in the middle of the country I would expect Saint Louis residents will start to follow both of these teams a little bit closer. Both teams will be strong contenders to reach the SB out of the NFC this season.

Kansas City: The Chiefs have the best chance geographically to gain the newly unclaimed St. Louis market (not counting the Rams fans that will remain loyal to the team) because they will now be the only football team in the state of Missouri. Fans are often loyal to their home cities and states, and even though Chicago is closer than Kansas City they are not in the same state as St. Louis. The Hunt family has to be grateful for the opportunity of the Rams leaving town because that creates a possibility to grow the Chiefs market size which in return will generate profit.  

Timing is everything in life, and if Clark Hunt could have chosen a year for his team to be successful then I would bet that this is the year he would choose. Remember the Hunt family has a long history of being great owners and a history of expanding their market size. It was Lamar Hunt who is credited for being the leader for merging the AFL with the NFL in 1966. If the Chiefs are able to have a successful season and make a run to the Super Bowl, the franchise will grow significantly in market size; thus also in revenue. The Hunt family has a lot riding on this year with the new Eastern Missouri market up for grabs.

Spygate/Deflategate

When I called my last point a conspiracy theory, it really wasn’t. It was mostly basic business marketing and economics. This point however, I admit is a reach, but I firmly believe on what I am telling to you. The NFL owes Andy Reid a big favor.

If you followed the Tom Brady/NE Patriots deflategate story then you will recall that the some of the owners were upset with Commissioner Goodell for his handling of the spy gate situation. Many NFL insiders believe Goodell had to come down extra hard on the Patriots for deflate gate because Goodell let NE off the hook from spygate. U.S. Senators even think the NFL went above and beyond what they should have done to destroy evidence and protect the Patriots for their notorious cheating methods.

You might have even heard the saying, “Protect the Shield.” Imagine if all the evidence was revealed and the NFL had a major cheating scandal right after Major League Baseball underwent a huge steroid cheating issue. Baseball still hasn’t recovered to where it was before it was revealed that steroids had taken over the sport. It is common knowledge that Goodell overprotected NE, Bellichick and his staff, and Robert Kraft. I heard that NFL owners were split on their opinion of Goodell’s handling of the situation. Some owners were happy that Goodell did a smear job because it saved “The Shield” from a Public relations nightmare. Some owners however were displeased that NE got off the hook so easy for their cheating. After all, they won three Super Bowls in four years something that is a great accomplishment. But again, according to the US Senators that investigated the NFL’s investigation on NE they believe the league was hiding/destroyed massive amounts of evidence that would show NE’s cheating was far worse than anyone would believe.

So how does Andy Reid and the Chiefs come into this? Remember Reid played NE in 2005’s SB 39. The other two teams that lost Super Bowls to NE were Carolina who was coached by Jon Fox and Saint Louis who was coached by Mike Marx. After deflate gate showed the NFL’s cover-up on spy gate, this is what Mike Marx had to say about the situation from and September 7th, 2015 ESPN.com article. “"He told me, 'The league doesn't need this. We're asking you to come out with a couple lines exonerating us and saying we did our due diligence,'" says Martz, now 64 years old and out of coaching, during a July interview at his summer cabin in the Idaho mountains.

A congressional inquiry that would put league officials under oath had to be avoided, Martz recalls Goodell telling him. "If it ever got to an investigation, it would be terrible for the league," Goodell said.

Martz says he still had more questions, but he agreed that a congressional investigation "could kill the league." So in the end, Martz got in line. He wrote the statement that evening, and it was released the next day, reading in part that he was "very confident there was no impropriety" and that it was "time to put this behind us."

Shown a copy of his statement this past July, Martz was stunned to read several sentences about Walsh that he says he's certain he did not write. "It shocked me," he says. "It appears embellished quite a bit -- some lines I know I didn't write. Who changed it? I don't know."

 This is what unamned source from Carolina had to said to CBSsports.com in a September 8th 2015 article, “it was like [the Patriots] were in our huddle.” He went on to say, "Our players came in after that first half and said it was like [the Patriots] were in our huddle," a Panthers source told ESPN.

According to the report, Panthers players and coaches believe their practices before the 2004 Super Bowl -- which the Patriots won on a late Tom Brady drive after John Kasay put a kickoff out of bounds -- were taped by New England. 

At halftime of that game, according to the report, Carolina offensive coordinator Dan Henning "changed game plans because of worries the Patriots had too close a read on Carolina's schemes."

Now read what Andy Reid had to say. This is an excerpt from a September 9th 2015 raycomgroup.com article. 

‘While the ESPN report mentions Reid, he said he doesn't think the Patriots had any inside knowledge before they beat his Eagles in the Super Bowl.

"I didn't feel that way in the Super Bowl and I didn't feel that way in the games we played them in. I always tell the players, 'I'll send you the playbook.' I'll send them the playbook, who cares. They've got 500 plays in there. How are they going to figure it all out?" Reid told reporters on Wednesday.’

Notice the difference? Two of the three team’s coaches that got cheated in Super Bowls by NE’s cheating did not protect the shield. Reid whose team might have been cheated on the most as NE presumably had stolen their game plan by sending spies into their practice; however did protect the shield.

You following this? Maybe you are someone not capable of thinking for themselves, and you need it reported through the main stream media for you to believe something, but if you think for yourself, then you realize what I realize. The NFL owes Andy Reid a favor. By Andy Reid voicing his thoughts behind closed doors, it saved the NFL a nightmare PR cheating issue. That means Andy Reid helped save the NFL owners millions upon millions of dollars.

Perhaps the Chiefs will get some calls by veteran officials come playoff time. Perhaps…I’m not saying the Chiefs need help to win the Lombardi Trophy, but I would never consider being on the officials good side a bad thing. No one has a bigger control over the outcome of sporting events the referees, officials, and umpires. Seasoned handicappers already know this.

Perhaps Reid did protect the NFL, but the NFL doesn’t operate the way I am suggesting. Again, take this for what it is. But when the playoffs roll around, ask yourself this; does the NFL consider itself to be a business or a sports league?

Recap

The Chiefs are the value play of the year, and perhaps even the value play of the decade or lifetime. The public opinion on the Chiefs right now is, “Good team, but they can’t win the big game.” “Perennially first round team” “Andy Reid can’t win the big game.” “Alex Smith will never be elite and can’t win the big game.” That is what the Public hears, but my ears “value, value, value, value.”

2016-17 NFL Value List-Play these teams ATS

1. KC ATS AND OPPONENTS TT UNDER
2. TEN TT OVER
3. CIN ATS
4. CHI OPPONENTS TT UNDER
5. BAL ATS

2016-17 NFL Value List-Play Against these teams ATS

1. CAR TT UNDER AND ATS
2. OAK ATS
3. HOU OPPONENTS TT OVER
4. IND ATS
5. MIA ATS

2016-17 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PREDICTION

KC-23                               SEA 31

PIT-20                              GB   24

SUPER BOWL PICK

KC 23

SEA 13

Best of Luck this NFL Season.

Sincerely,

ZWiseGuy

**This article does not promote sports gambling, condone sports gambling, or suggest the readers to bet on sports in any such way. Any reader that chooses to gamble on sports is doing so against the advice of the writer. **

Remember to Always Play Responsibly. 

Will 'Hawks Fly?

It’s going to be an interesting offseason for all the 12’s in Seattle, with the common belief that the Seattle Seahawks will return for the 2015 season better than ever. After the devastating loss in Superbowl XLIX, Seattle QB, Russell Wilson tweeted, “every setback has a major comeback”.  If the Seattle Seahawks wish to come back quickly, they have a few things to address this offseason: 

We live in the era of the Franchise Quarterback. Therefore, at the top of the list of priorities should be to restructure Russell Wilson’s contract. Not long ago Wilson stated that he wanted to play in Seattle ‘forever’, which allowed GM John Schneider to approach the restructuring of his quarterback’s contract with “outside the box thinking”. The latest news dictates that the ‘Hawks are looking to lock up their superstar on a long term deal with a fully guaranteed contract; something that would limit Wilson’s cap hit and clear up valuable cap space to bring back other key players of the franchise, such as Marshawn Lynch. The consensus around the league is that Lynch will be back in Seattle, but he is unpredictable as they come.  One thing is for certain: Money talks, and any favorable deal Russell Wilson could agree to with the team would go a long way to retaining his bruiser of a running back.  

Despite all the warranted attention regarding the futures of Wilson and Lynch, the most crucial position for the Seahawks is their wide receivers, who over the last several years have been spoken of as ‘pedestrian’ and ‘average’. While popular opinion among league personnel steers toward a big receiver being key to unleashing the Seahawks offense, it should be noted that Seattle does things differently than the rest of the NFL, and have been rewarded for it by participating in the last two Superbowls. Seattle is all about building a dynamic football team, creating as many different and unexpected threats as possible, and the type of receivers the Seattle Seahawks have had contribute more to that than people think. 

Back in 2013 the Seahawks acquired superstar Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings with the intention to make him their true number one wideout.  The experiment ended shortly after it began, with Harvin failing to stay healthy and make a consistent impact in the Seahawks system before being shipped off to the New York Jets. Why did a receiver with the talent of Harvin fail in Seattle? If one looks at Russell Wilson, he is an elite QB in terms of extending plays, and what Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, as opposed to Harvin, do so well is they never stop moving. When Wilson gets out of the pocket they make sure to run smart, practical routes in order to get open and provide Wilson with multiple threats every single play. Doug Baldwin hauled in 66 passes this past season, with 45 of those generated first downs, a result of his ability to stay open throughout plays - an elementary part of the way the Seahawks play football. It’s a trait that can’t be quantified in the NFL Combine or in workouts. Finding open space after the play breaks down is something that Harvin and other big name receivers struggle with, and is truly an undervalued skill.

While there is no doubt a big, explosive WR would help any team, it is not the solution to Seattle’s offseason issues.  The ‘Hawks have tremendous young talent ready to make an impact on the team in Paul Richardson, Kevin Norwood and Chris Matthews, who showed a glimpse of his talent in Superbowl catching everything thrown his way. An obvious threat down the field would affect the current unpredictability, which constitutes the true nature of the Seahawks offense. If Seattle can maintain its defensive core, lock up Russell Wilson, keep the running game effective and continue developing young talent, look for the road to the Superbowl to go through CenturyLink Field.

Follow Petter Sundstrom on Twitter - @PSundstromm

IKE Writer Dan McCrory shares his list of NFL players who turn up without the slightest regard.

As a college student, I understand the aspect, and more so the appeal of partying. Going out and getting drunk with all of you buddies and chasing tail into the early hours of the morning, it happens to the best of us. It’s really easy to get away with (and quite frankly, no one cares for that matter) when you’re a 20-year-old college student. However, it’s not quite as easy to get away with when you’re under the microscope of being a professional athlete. Most athletes try to keep their social life out of the tabloids (lookin at you Derek Jeter), while some just can’t seem to stay out of them. Let’s take Johnny Manziel for example, there are people who have probably never watched a down of Texas A&M Aggie football in their life, yet they know about everything crazy he’s done the last two years because of all the attention that ESPN and other sporting/paparazzi sites have put on him since winning the Heisman trophy. Let’s take a dive into the social spectrum of the NFL and reveal some of the brightest stars of the party scene...

10. Ricky Williams, RB Retired

How can you ever forget about the OG Ricky Williams? Defenses weren’t the only thing Sticky Icky Ricky burned in his career. The former Heisman Trophy winner and All-Pro running back used to smoke enough weed to make Wiz Khalifa’s eyes start to turn red. Ever watch the 30 for 30 with Williams? Don’t show the kids.

9. Desean Jackson, WR Washington Redskins

Terio’s unofficial uncle is quite the boss off of the field. Owner of Jaccpot Records, a music label started by Jackson, has to give the small receiver some glamour in his social life. I mean, he was spotted in a Washington club with rapper Wale, can’t imagine that was a bad time.

8.  Reggie Bush, RB Detroit Lions

I’m going to keep Reggie Bush’s description short and sweet. He won the Heisman trophy in L.A, received lots of improper benefits, and dated Kim Kardashian. Case Closed.

7. Michael Irvin, WR Retired

Well first of all with Michael Irvin, he went to Miami back when it was becoming donned ‘The U’ and it was the epicenter of college football. Everyone and anyone were on the sidelines of those Hurricanes games. Also, getting drafted to the Dallas Cowboys and becoming a cornerstone for ‘Americas Team’ gives you a lot of notoriety. From what I’ve heard, the sidelines weren’t the only white lines that Irvin could avoid during his career.

6.  Josh Gordon, WR Cleveland Browns

Ever since Gordon’s 2013 breakout campaign as the NFL’s top WR came to an end, it seems like nothing good has happened to the young man. With a list of failed drug tests, an impending season-long suspension, and a DUI earlier this month, maybe Gordon is taking the phrase “turn up” too far. Plus this offseason isn’t the only time he’s been charged with drugs, he violated the NFL Substance abuse-policy before last season, and he was caught during his college career at Baylor. Looks like Gordon can be the only one who has fun in Cleveland.

5. Johnny Manziel, QB Cleveland Browns

Oh wait, yes there can be someone else who has as much fun as Gordon does in Cleveland. Manziel being drafted 22nd in this year’s draft had as much to do with his party life as it did with his size. After winning the Heisman in 2012, Manziel’s social life went on a straight tornado throughout the tabloids the past 2 years. Just weeks after being drafted, he was spotted at a party with Rob Gronkowski in Las Vegas. Don’t even get me started on the “dollar bill in bathroom” fiasco. Dude does what he wants, when he wants. And the Browns seem to be just fine with that.

4. Osi Umenyiora, DE Atlanta Falcons

Umenyiora may seem like the odd man out, but he has taken a strange turn to end up on this list. Following his marriage in 2011 to Miss Universe Leila Lopes, he has been spotted in countless clubs with his wife and her gorgeous entourage. Looks like the married life hasn’t slowed Umenyiora at all, and now that he’s retired, the man is letting loose.

3.  Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, CB Cincinnati Bengals

Pac-Man Jones. How the hell does one even get that nickname?  In 2007, Jones was involved in an incident in a Las Vegas strip club that left a man paralyzed after a gunshot by Jones. Went from making it rain in a Vegas club with Nelly to paralyzing a man in the back ally. As Dave Chappelle would say, that’s where keeping it real, went wrong.

2.  Ken Stabler, QB Retired

Ken Stabler, the man that every kid in the 80’s wanted to be. The man was known for studying his playbook with the light given off by the jukebox in clubs, the man who would show up to games still wreaking of booze from the previous night’s festivities.  Some say Stabler, the 4th quickest quarterback to 100 wins in NFL history is being snubbed from the Football Hall Of Fame because of his off the field tactics.

1.     Rob Gronkowski, TE New England Patriots

For a guy who plays for an organization like the New England Patriots, a relatively low-key organization (minus Aaron Hernandez), he really gets out and parties a lot. The most notable of these occasions followed the Patriots Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants back in 2012. Gronk was dancing and jumping around on a leg he was too hurt to play on during during what should be the biggest game of his career. Nevertheless, Gronkowski won’t turn down for anyone, not even the dictator, Bill Belichick. 

Follow Dan McCrory on Twitter - @dmaculate47

2014 Running-Back Power Rankings

Expanding off his Eddie Lacy article, IKE writer Sam Mathison ranks the top 5 RB's in the NFL

1.     Adrian Peterson: Minnesota Vikings

Every time AP touches the ball there’s a chance he could take it to the house. Possibly the best overall player in the NFL, his unheard of combination of size/speed/strength can at times render defensive strategy useless. Only two years removed from his outstanding 2,009 yard season expect AP to carry the Vikings during Teddy Bridgewater’s rookie season.

2.     Jamaal Charles: Kansas City Chiefs

When defensive coordinators think KC, the first player that comes to mind is Jamaal Charles. His speed is what sets him apart from the rest of the league, and last season he became a touchdown machine while also hauling in 70 receptions.  Charles accounted for 67 percent of the Chiefs rushing yards, 49 percent of their offensive touchdowns, 22 percent of their pass receptions, and 20 percent of their receiving yards… If Payton Manning didn’t have a Hall-of-Fame caliber year, surely Jamal Charles would have been named the league’s most valuable player. After two consecutive outstanding seasons, look for him to prove he’s worth his brand new 4 year/28 million dollar contract.  

3.    Eddie Lacy: Green Bay Packers

The youngest running back on the list, Lacy is ready for a dominant sophomore season. With a healthy Green Bay offense, defenses won’t be able to handle the combination of Lacy and Rodgers. The reigning rookie of the year and Pro Bowler is out to prove that he really is an elite running back and ready to push the Packers back to the top of the NFL. Lacy showed he can produce numbers against stout defenses, rushing for 150 yards against Chicago on 22 carries, and for 120 yards on 23 carries against the Baltimore Ravens.

4.    LeSean McCoy:  Philadelphia Eagles

McCoy is set up for success in Chip Kelly’s high speed offense that allowed him to rush for 1,607 yards and tally up 539 receiving yards. Thriving in space, he might be the best dual threat running back on this list. After quietly leading the league in rushing yards last season, McCoy is poised for a big year. However, look for his touches to decrease slightly with the team’s offseason addition of Darren Sproles.

5.   Marshawn Lynch: Seattle Seahawks

Lynch put Seattle’s offense on his back as they dominated the NFL last season. You never know when the Skittle man will pull a “Beastmode” on defenses. Coming off a stellar three year stretch with Seattle in which he scored 40 touchdowns and rushed for over 4,000 yards, there’s no question he’s an elite rusher. Runningbacks age fast, however, and the Seahawks have two talented running backs behind him, Christine Michael and Robert Turbine that are ready to make the most of their carries. Lynch will see goal line touches, but the overall volume of his carries this season is cloudier than in years past

Honorable Mention: Matt Forte (CHI), DeMarco Murray (DAL), Frank Gore (SF), Ryan Matthews (SD)

Follow Sam Mathison on Twitter - @sam_mathison

The Ascension of Eddie Lacy

After a monster rookie season, IKE writer Sam Mathison looks at the enormous potential of Eddie Lacy. Look for his NFL Runningback Power Rankings, out soon.

The Green Bay Packers entered the 2013 season with possibly the worst rushing attack in the NFL - so bad they had gone 43 consecutive regular season games without a 100 yard rusher. Desperate for help in the running game, the days of Aaron Rodgers being the team’s leading rusher needed to end if they wanted to compete with the best of the NFC.

After mistakenly passing up on Eddie Lacy in the first round of the 2013 draft, the Packers were pleased to see him still available with their 61st pick. Lacy exceeded expectations and dominated his rookie season, proving especially vital when Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Defenses feared his brute strength to go along with one of the quickest spin moves in the league. He finished the season with 1,187 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in only 14 games played (missing two games due to a concussion). His 84.1 yards per game placed him behind only top tier backs Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Lacy quickly became one of the Packers top offensive options and capped a fantastic first season by winning offensive Rookie of the Year and earning a trip to the Pro Bowl.

What should fans expect in his sophomore season? Complete dominance. With a year in the system, Eddie Lacy could become a top 3 running back as early as this fall. The man will not go down – his 56 broken tackles last season were good for 4th in the NFL. Another reason to expect an increase in yards and carries is his outstanding ball security; he only fumbled once in 305 carries.  Aaron Rodgers was out half of the season last year with injury, allowing defenses to stack the line against Lacy. With a healthy Aaron, Cobb, Jordy Nelson, along with draft additions Devante Adams and Jarred Abbrederis, defenses will be forced to respect one of the best passing offenses in the league, giving Lacy even bigger opportunities to rack up yards. The return of Aaron Rodgers should allow the Packers to return to obliterating their weak opponents, creating opportunities for Lacy to rack up yards while closing out games. The Packers went from the 22nd best rushing attack in 2012 to the 4th best in 2013, and that’s not because of Starks, Rodgers, or Franklin.

Lacy is one of the most promising young backs in the NFL, offering tremendous upside. His contributions to the running game make the Packers a legitimate super bowl contender. Adrian Petersen is the best running back in the league, but after that, the door is completely open. Watch out for the ascension of Eddie Lacy.

Follow Sam Mathison on Twitter - @sam_mathison